AI / ML2023

Merchant Risk & Chargeback Optimization

This Ospina case study documents how Carlos Rico-Ospina approached a specific risk, infrastructure, revenue, or research problem and what was built to address it.

Cut chargeback rates in half with a hybrid AI + operations system that turned fraud defense into a competitive advantage.

Fraud PreventionMachine LearningPayment ProcessingOperationsSignifyd
Merchant Risk & Chargeback Optimization

The Problem

In high-risk digital goods processing, maintaining healthy merchant accounts is existential. Chargeback rates were hovering at 1.0–1.2%—the threshold where Visa/Mastercard monitoring programs begin. Standard fraud filters (AVS/CVV) were failing. The company's ability to process payments was at risk.

The Insight

Traditional rules-based fraud prevention was obsolete for digital goods. I identified an early-stage opportunity with a prominent ML fraud detection platform. This shouldn't be a passive vendor relationship—by providing diverse transaction data, we could help train their models for the specific nuances of prop trading while getting enterprise-grade protection that didn't exist for our niche.

What I Built

  • Integrated ML-based real-time decisioning using device fingerprinting and behavioral analytics
  • Built custom internal dispute database replacing manual email-based chargeback handling
  • Created streamlined dashboard for international contractors to access logs and auto-generate evidence packs
  • Established mutual value exchange with fraud prevention vendor—data for protection

Outcomes

  • Reduced chargeback rate from 1.2% to 0.6% within 60 days
  • On $10M monthly volume: $60K/month reduction in disputed transactions
  • Moved from 'risk zone' to 'safe zone' with banking partners
  • Hundreds of thousands in recovered revenue through automated dispute response

Why It Matters

Treated Fraud Ops as a product problem, not just a finance problem.

Combined contract negotiation with technical architecture—getting ML vendor onboard AND building the ops infrastructure.

Client and vendor names anonymized. Written praise received from payments executives supporting 85,000+ merchants (available upon request).

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